Written by Lucie Sovová.
“The future” cannot be “predicted” because “the future” does not exist.
Any useful idea about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.
These two often quoted sentences from Jim Dator’s text on Future studies tickle scientists‘ brains. Science has useful tools to make predictions, usually extrapolating from the current state: if we continue on this path, this is likely to happen. When thinking about the current food system (and many other issues), this approach quickly leads to a bleak picture: we are headed the wrong way and clearly need to change course. How exactly that should happen is a more difficult question – it is in fact much easier to identify which parts of the current setup are preventing change.
Future studies propose a different approach: rather than thinking about the scenarios that are the most likely extension of the present, let us think about a desirable future. Envisioning preferred futures – realistic or not – can help us think outside of the box of the current state. This, in turn, can set a clear direction of where we want to go, and open up creative ideas about how to get there. Future studies are tied to a number of methodological approaches, such as participatory foresight, scenario development or visioning which can work with desirable, possible and probable outcomes. When paired up with strategic planning and policy development, these tools can in fact help envision and implement change. This way of working fits with the tradition of engaged research at the Rural Sociology Group, and different future-oriented methods have been used in the group’s past and current projects, such as TRANSMANGO or CULTIVATE.
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Rural Sociology Wageningen University 